Looking back at the future of western prosperity
The bad-news destination or the good-news destination.
In my book Take Back Manufacturing published in 2022 I explained how the reshoring of our industries was an economic imperative for the prosperity in the western nations, and I ended the book by predicting two possible outcomes…The bad-news destination or the good-news destination.
I explain at the end of this article why it’s clear that the USA has progressed the most toward the good-news destination, while Canada, the UK, the EU and Australia are far behind in developing the correct plans, let alone making progress toward the correct destination.
Here are the two destinations straight from the book….
Conclusion
How should I conclude this book?
All I can do is offer the two possible destinations to the journey I have taken you on.
The bad-news destination
We all do nothing, or very little, and continue down the current globalized free-trade road of trade imbalance, poor productivity, ongoing high-debt loads, rank inflation, and terrible prosperity.
The manufacturing facilities that remain in Canada look more like small hobby shops when compared to the other USMCA manufacturing facilities and the global manufacturing competition.
None of this gets noticed by a continuously distracted Canadian government and media that continues to be consumed with worrying more about “who we are” rather than “how we are doing,” and dissipates energy pacifying the minority-interest groups, who continue to tear apart our social fabric.
They all continue to follow political and economic agendas that don’t “pay the rent.”
The climate-change agenda continues to force alarmism and significant mitigation efforts, rather than a mild need for some future adaption.
The expensive and distracting goal of reducing CO2 continues, even though CO2 and global temperatures are at the lowest average level in 250 million years.
All this mitigation happens even though it’s established that increasing CO2 is a net benefit by greening the planet and improving the much-needed food supply.
This bad journey in the wrong direction blindsides our ability to focus on the real prosperity issues, such as TBM, and so our prosperity sinks lower.
We become a poor and irrelevant nation, which is an OK place to live, if you can afford it.
The good-news destination
We get extremely lucky: we all vote for governments on both sides of the border that work together and form a working coalition to create a national social contract with a focus on a no-nonsense productivity and prosperity agenda.
All governments finally agree that the notion of building an economy around just services while also supporting significant levels of imports, even if you have resources to trade with, is not the way to get prosperity.
All agree we will need strong manufacturing, resources and services blended in a balanced economy.
This way, we minimize the need for imports and can reduce the need for exporting resources to pay for them.
The unified North American governments make the USMCA a true trade bloc that enforces the suppression of past wasteful international agreements.
This reduces unnecessary offshore imports to localize trade and leverage the advantage of local natural resources.
This starts a significant and much needed reshoring gradient that better manages the trade balance.
Firm focus and action to support this journey is undertaken by government, the educational institutions, and industry-support organizations to respond to the challenge to take back manufacturing. An IILS is launched, and it becomes a strong thrust for the citizen population to re-life itself and get back to solid and meaningful employment.
The whole learning syllabus of our elementary and secondary schools are revisited and better focused around providing a solid education in STEM subjects to better position our youth for a solid career.
Also, the image of manufacturing is improved with solid PR by a supportive media, and youth starts to see industry as cool, and a new maker culture emerges.
INDUSTRY 4.0 is the main investment focus across North America, and the financial institutions assist our governments in an investment plan for the long-term restoration of manufacturing using these strategies.
Due to this INDUSTRY 4.0 approach, we will need far less new labor to drive productivity and growth.
Therefore, less immigration will be needed, and future immigrants must come with employment offers, and ready and aligned to join our society and contribute.
A long-range energy plan to support industry is undertaken, with nuclear power as the main thrust to support industry and the electrification of our modern society, so we can reduce unnecessary pollution.
Also, overall energy strategies, including oil and gas, are developed, including transnational pipelines to ensure overall continental energy self-sufficiency through the short to long term.
The issues of climate change are revisited and debated in a mature manner, and a more realistic perspective is achieved, so that we avoid the blunder of climate-mitigation projects.
Some adaption projects are included in new infrastructure projects that are undertaken to support the re-industrialization journey.
We significantly reduce the energy and investment at all levels on wasteful social-political agendas.
We make the economy and prosperity the main agenda. In other words, less about “who we are” and much more about “how we are doing”
We eliminate government and public sector waste and bureaucracy in all forms.
We develop a plan for sustainable and economic development.
The whole nation starts to develop a “get it done” attitude.
As part of the new social contract, we stop the housing market financial casino, and other areas of over financialization of our economy.
We agree to add stricter controls on the movement of capital into our banking, investment, and business sectors with appropriate policies.
With assistance from our powerful media, we communicate the social contract and the prosperity plans and progress.
We re-install hope for future prosperity back into the minds of our citizens, and especially all our youth.
Also, we ensure that everyone has a clear view of their own roles and responsibilities to undertake this prosperity journey.
We reinstall the image of a nation with citizens who have rights, but also civic responsibilities, and we learn the common ground between the differences between ourselves, so we can live in harmony.
Our youth becomes our greatest generation ever, and they fuel the new industrial environment so that it is productive, prosperous, and highly sustainable, and together we take back manufacturing!
These are our destination choices. You choose!
The Score so far…..
The USA has done the most to move toward the good-news destination with the trade reshoring efforts, the more realistic approach to climate change policies and energy solutions, and the approach toward a strict focus on prosperity, and only responding to questions about “how we are doing,” and avoiding the impossible question and dangerous trap of the left leaning identity politics of “who we are”
All the other western nations (Canada, UK, EU, Australia) are still focused on the wrong global trade and immigration policies, and these socialist-liberal led nations still remain trapped in the destructive clutches of climate policies that promote NetZero and so called renewable energy policies that are continuing to deindustrialize their economies and further decline their prosperity. They continue to waste effort on woke issues that don’t pay the rent.
For them the fix is going to take a sea change in national leadership, or citizen revolution, which ever comes first!
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Nigel Southway is based in Toronto Canada and is an independent business consultant and recently authored the advocacy book Take Back Manufacturing.
He is also the author of Cycle Time Management: The Fast Track to Time-Based Productivity Improvement, an early textbook on the concept of LEAN thinking and Six Sigma, and how to implement it.
He consults and educates worldwide on Business Productivity Improvement, Advanced Manufacturing Engineering, Sustainable Supply Chain Management, Industry 4.0, National Sustainability & Prosperity, Global technology transfer projects and joint ventures and more.
He has gained experience assisting clients across a wide range of business sectors and industries and helps clients develop a strategy and a vision to attack waste, capture productivity improvements, increase profits, and become more competitive in the global market.
He is a part time professor for Canadian Colleges and lectures on Advanced Manufacturing and Global Supply Chain Management.
He is a past chair of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers and the leading advocate and spokesperson for the Take Back Manufacturing (TBM) Forum, and the North American Reshoring initiative in Canada.
More about the book Take Back Manufacturing….. www.nigelsouthway.org ………………………………………………………………………..